Monday, April 25, 2016
Oil prices: An analysis of Andrew Walker, a correspondent for the BBC's Economics
Saudi man in front of the oil price on the stock exchange in RiyadhImage copyrightAP
Image captionSaudi Arabia is the largest exporter in the world crude
Oil has made Saudi Arabia a major economic factor. But it comes at a price. The short-term challenge is the volatile price of crude oil, which is currently less than half as much as it was in mid-2014. Saudi Arabia has deep pockets.
It will not work go to the International Monetary Fund for financial aid, something different oil exporter, Angola, did. But the Saudi reserves are blurring and almost three-quarters of public revenues on the basis of oil price decline makes itself felt.
In the long-term international efforts to combat climate change creates enormous uncertainty regarding oil demand in the future. Oil loses its dominance in the transport fuel market in the next few years, but the prospect of more to come is unknown.
Thus, Saudi Arabia should become less dependent on oil for government revenue and jobs and incomes of Saudi citizens.
Oil prices are still less than half the peak of $ 115 a barrel seen in June 2014, but the prince said that the reform will go ahead regardless of the price.
"The vision has nothing to do with the price of crude oil," he said.
"If the price of oil goes back up it will greatly support the vision, but he does not need the high prices. We can deal with the lowest prices possible."
Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman depicted in the office meetingImage copyrightReuters
Image captionThe powerful and influential Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave detailed information about the reform plan, known as Vision 2030
In an interview with Bloomberg last week, Prince Mohammed said taxes on luxury goods and sugary drinks can also be administered. However, he said that it is important that the program will not leave poor countries worse off.
Prince is the second in line to the Saudi throne, and also serves as defense minister.
Huge oil revenues allowed the Saudi government to offer generous subsidies for utility services for the population. But some of them have been reduced in the past year due to the fall in oil prices.
Over the weekend, King Salman dismissed minister of water on a background of resentment at higher prices for utilities.
Saudi slump
Even rich Saudi Arabia is under pressure from tumbling oil prices, and announced a series of economic reforms
72%
revenues come from oil
$ 98bn budget deficit in 2015
an increase of 80% in gasoline prices in the past year in the country
$ 2.5tn size of the state oil giant Aramco
$ 2tn potential sovereign wealth fund worth Saudis created
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
Analysis: Dave Lee, BBC North America Technology reporter, San Francisco
This time last year, Nadella was preparing for a massive launch - Windows 10. For the first time the operating system is free. The goal - to get it on as many devices as possible, because then the fun can begin.
Over 270 million units later, Windows 10, it's time to see what he can do. In 2016 release, the excitement around the AI and AR.
AI - Artificial Intelligence - is only-slightly-jokey reputation as a technology that could potentially lead to the end of humanity as we know it. But this is not "man versus machine", Mr Nadella said, but "the man with the machine."
He said that the bots new applications, as well as demonstrate the assistant Cortana Microsoft's flash - it is integrated into other programs such as Skype. The goal here is to have the ever-present assistant, which grows more intelligent over time.
AR - Augmented Reality - is now ready for developers. First HoloLens Headsets to be sent out, and with it the promise of calculating the events that we had never imagined for education, business and entertainment.
But I must say that the on-screen demo HoloLens are fantastic compared to the fact that the device can actually do today.
How to be run on Windows 10, people asked if Microsoft can drag themselves back into relevance.
Tonight's show AI and AR proves that they were superior. Microsoft is exciting again.
Build 2016: Microsoft offers an auxiliary boom bot
Nadella said, Microsoft hopes to "pour" with intelligence technology
Microsoft introduced a new robotic system that can represent the business and interact with users via Skype.
Social robots automatically programs that can communicate with users in a humanlike way.
As part of the Build developer conference, Microsoft also showed an update digital assistant Cortana, which can interact with the bots on your behalf.
Cortana will now function in a variety of devices and operating systems such as Android and IOS.
Tech giant also announced the Skype application for your HoloLens headset.
"We want to build intelligence, which greatly enhances human capabilities and experience," said audience when building in San Francisco, Microsoft CEO Nadella.
Mr. Nadella Cortana described as "truly unlimited personal assistant that is always with you," as he explained that it will be available across Windows, Center IOS and Android OS devices.
Just hours earlier, however, artificial intelligence called Tay Twitter bot creator Microsoft was briefly revived and started spewing nonsense tweets.
Mr. Nadella acknowledged problems with the bot, and said: "We are back to the drawing board."
Executive Lillian Rincon demonstrated how automated robots could help to book a hotel through SkypeImage copyrightMicrosoft
Image captionExecutive Lillian Rincon demonstrated how automated robots could help to find a hotel with Skype
Business bots
Lillian Rincon, a Skype application group manager proceeded to demonstrate how online automated bots can interact with Cortana in a text conversation in to Skype.
"As soon as you see here is the fact that the agent, Cortana, actually mediating conversation with the bot a third party," she explained, as Cortana final details of the delivery of products.
The app can also, for example, listen to a conversation between friends about the trip, and then propose the introduction of a bot, which is a local hotel.
The order can then be executed as if the conversation took place between a user and a sales representative.
"Microsoft integrates its Cortana and deep learning opportunities in the platform, which will cover everything from Skype to the appearance and on different devices," CCS Insight analyst Geoff Blaber told the BBC.
"This is Microsoft is trying to set the next platform, omitting the mobile."
Chris Green, a technical expert consulting Lewis, said the development is likely designed to increase the availability of Cortana to more users on more systems and thereby increase application "stickiness."
"This concept of stickiness is very important, we are talking about the formation of the connection between the user and the system - it is important to achieve the long-term usability," he told the BBC.
Annex to teach human anatomy for medical students using HoloLens been shown offImage copyrightMicrosoft
Image captionAn app to teach medical students human anatomy was paraded through HoloLens
HoloLens Developer
The company also confirmed that it HoloLens augmented reality headset, which was suddenly announced to build last year, will begin shipping to developers.
The statement in this regard have already been made on the Windows blog from Microsoft in February.
Applications that demonstrate how HoloLens can be used, for example, teach students human anatomy - from the "holographic" images of organs and systems that are visible in 3D-headset wearers.
Monday, March 21, 2016
Analysis: Michelle Fleury, North American Business Correspondent
The Federal Reserve scaled back the number of times it expects to raise interest rates this year, warning that global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks.
Fed officials publish their forecasts for the central bank’s key interest rate on a chart known as the “dot plot”.
By pencilling in just two hikes this year – instead of the four assumed back in December – they were sending a message: they think the US needs more time to recover.
Fearing that financial markets might get ahead of themselves, Chair Janet Yellen in her new conference warned that the “dot plot” was not a promise and that policy was not on a pre-set course.
A message that may not have got through given the reaction on the S&P which closed at a high for this year.
An unexpected rise in underlying US inflation has led many investors to view June as month when the Fed will raise rates.
The Fed said its target of 2% inflation could be reached over the medium term, however, due to the effect of falling oil prices.
Labour market
Inflation and the job market have been the two key factors in the Fed’s decision to raise rates.The US labour market has been improving. The unemployment rate fell bellow 5% in January. Ms Yellen stressed that the labour market participation rate – which measures the number of people looking for work – had also improved, a further sign of a strengthening economy.
Ms Yellen stressed that “policy is not on a pre-set course” and would change “as shocks positive or negative affected [economic] forecasts”.
In December, the Fed downgraded its growth expectations for the US economy from 2.4% to 2.2%.
Oil prices
Energy prices have been a significant factor in the Fed’s decision.The price of oil has risen from an 11-month low of below $30 a barrel to just under $40.
Ms Yellen said this had eased concerns about the health of some companies and foreign markets that rely on oil production.
At the same time lower oil prices have allowed US households to spend in other areas.
US Federal Reserve holds interest rates
The US Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates at between 0.25% and 0.5%.
The central bank said the labour market was strengthening, but it was still looking for inflation to reach its 2% target and expected the US economy to continue to “expand at a moderate pace”The US central bank last raised rates in December, saying it expected to raise rates four times in 2016.
It now says it expects to raise rates just twice this year.
“Proceeding cautiously will allow us to verify that the labour market is continue to strength given the economic risk from abroad,” said the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, speaking at a press conference after the announcement.
In a statement issued on Wednesday, the Fed’s Open Market Committee – which decides the level of interest rates – said that while the US economy was seeing some improvement, weaker global markets were having a dampening effect.
“Household spending has been increasing at a moderate rate, and the housing sector has improved further; however, business fixed investment and net exports have been soft,” the committee said.
EU referendum: CBI warns of UK exit ‘serious shock’
A UK exit from the EU would cause a “serious economic shock”, potentially costing the country £100bn and nearly one million jobs, according to a report commissioned by the CBI.
The business lobby group said a study found that a vote to leave would have “negative echoes” lasting many years.It said the cost could be as much as 5% of GDP and 950,000 jobs by 2020.
But Vote Leave chief executive Matthew Elliott said employment and the economy would continue to grow after an exit.
He said that “even in the CBI’s skewed choice of scenarios for exit” it was “forced to admit” that would happen.
CBI director general Carolyn Fairbairn said an EU exit “would be a real blow for living standards, jobs and growth”.
She said: “The savings from reduced EU budget contributions and regulation are greatly outweighed by the negative impact on trade and investment.
“Even in the best case this would cause a serious shock to the UK economy.”
- All you need to know about the EU referendum
- UK and the EU – better out or in?
- EU vote: where the cabinet and other MPs stand
- EU referendum timeline
The firm forecast that if Britain voted to stay in the EU, the average annual GDP growth between 2016 and 2020 would be 2.3%.
This compares with 1.5% economic expansion under a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and 0.9% if the UK struck a deal as a WTO member, PwC said.
However, Mr Elliott said that average annual economic growth in both exit scenarios between 2020 and 2030 would equal – and in some cases beat – GDP forecasts for the UK remaining in the EU.
If the UK remained in, PwC said GDP was forecast to expand on average by 2.3% between 2021 and 2025 and between 2026 and 2030.
In a free trade scenario, PwC said average annual growth would be 2.7% between 2021 and 2025, and an average of 2.3% in the years to 2030.
In a WTO agreement, average annual GDP growth would be 2.6% between 2021 and 2025 and 2.4% up to 2030, forecast PwC.
| Average annual GDP growth forecasts | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-2020 | 2021-2025 | 2026-2030 | |
| Britain remains | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| FTA scenario | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% |
| WTO scenario | 0.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% |
Vote Leave said that jobs would still be created under either of the scenarios presented by PwC. By 2030, if Britain stayed in the EU, employment would reach 34.5 million, Vote Leave said.
If the UK left and made a free trade deal, employment would reach 34.1 million, or would hit 33.9 million in a WTO deal by 2030, according to calculations by Vote Leave.
The PwC report said there was likely to be “significant economic and political uncertainty” if Britain voted to leave because it could take at least two years before the UK clarified its relationship with the EU over trade and other matters.
Ms Fairbairn said: “The economy would slowly recover over time, but never quite tracks back to where it would have been. Leaving the EU would mean a smaller economy in 2030.”
Mr Elliott said: “If we want to take back control and strike the kind of free trade deal the CBI refuses to even consider, the only safe option is to Vote Leave.”
Britain’s biggest business lobby group released the report by PwC after a recent poll found that 80% of members questioned in a survey wanted to remain in the EU.
The CBI said it would not align itself with either side of the debate but, following the result of the survey, has set out the economic case for Britain staying within the EU.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)